By Robert J. Garrison
I know what you’re thinking. “Robert, what are you smoking?” Please hear me out, I mean really hear me out.
Hillary is a policy wonk, which appeals to the elites and pundits, but not to voters so much, which is why I give her a very slight razor’s edge win. According to Real Clear Politics which averages out all the polls, Clinton gained just over 1% bounce in the national polls a couple of days after the debate. Yet the overall bounce has been around 2-3%.
A new Fox News poll showed Hillary gaining 2-3% since the beginning of September; However, Trump’s numbers remained unchanged during that same time. That is not something that you would expect. So what’s going on? That proves that Hillary Clinton won the debate right? Not so fast.
While I am sure that Clinton gained in the polls because of her debate performance, I believe that it was very little. I believe that another event happened that helped Clinton gain another 1-2% in national polls this week; that is, Gary Johnson having another Aleppo moment. On Hardball with Chris Matthew’s, the Libertarian candidate couldn’t name a world leader that he admired.
Gary Johnson may be taking some voters from Trump, but he’s taking more from Clinton! Yet all this talk is about national polls, not state polls which are much more important.
I mentioned in my previous articles that Trump’s focus shouldn’t be on national polls, but it should be on the state polls which are a better barometer of who will win the Electoral College. The latest polls in battleground states of Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have shown a very small change in the polls in favor of Clinton. So how can Trump seem to have such a horrible debate performance but still come out unscathed? The South Carolina GOP primary debate, that’s how!
Everyone agreed the South Carolina debate was Trump’s worst performance. During the debate, he blamed Bush (who is extremely popular in SC) for going into Iraq! That’s a liberal position, not a GOP position! This is a third rail to say something like that, especially if you’re trying to win the party’s nomination. Yet Trump’s numbers not only skyrocketed, he went on to win the South Carolina primary! Why? Because Trump knows how to connect with the voters. And I am not the only one that thinks this.
Dilbert creator Scott Adam’s also believes that while Trump may have lost the debate, he won the election because of his ability to use psychology to make a connection with voters. Political elites and pundits focus on a politician’s speaking style and details of policies. That was the blueprint of deciding who won a debate. However, as we have seen time and time again, the standard methods have been broken by Trump.
Conventional political analysis has gone out the window when it comes to Trump. The media and pundits really have no clue how to predict what will happen with Trump or his numbers. Trump has turned the pundits and political analysis on its head and it’s driving them crazy! They just don’t get how Trump can say outlandish things that would normally damage any other candidate. This is not the first time that political elites and pundits have been at a lost about a political candidate.
This also happened to Reagan all throughout his presidency. They just couldn’t understand how this B-movie star that constantly called the USSR an evil empire (an empire that could wipe the US off the face of the earth with their nuclear weapons and thought such rhetoric could start WWIII) wasn’t scaring voters, but actually was popular among them! Why was he so popular? Because he knew how to connect with voters.
Now I am in no way calling Trump, Reagan. I am just saying that Trump has mastered the art of connecting with voters. And as a consequence, he has the freedom to campaign without any fear of his words damaging him in any way.
When you have that kind of freedom you can be more at ease, be truthful, and come off as genuine and that will always connect with the voters. He accomplishes this by coming off as unscripted and less robotic than Hillary. Yeah, sure Hillary has all the knowledge and experience, but it doesn’t amount to a hill of beans if you don’t connect with the people who you are trying to go out and vote for you! If you can’t connect with them, how are you going to inspire them to volunteer at the phone bank, knock on doors, and get other people to vote for her?
Hillary has a lot of connecting to do. According to a new Rasmussen Report, Trump has a double-digit lead over Hillary among independents. If Hillary wants to win this election, she has got to use the psychology that Trump is so effective at and start connecting with the voters! If she doesn’t, then she is dead in the water and we will be seeing a Trump win.
Robert J. Garrison is a political and religious writer for The Systems Scientist. You can connect with him directly in the comments section, follow him on Twitter or on Facebook, or catch up on his articles in the Archives.
Photo credit: The Qudosi Chronicles
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