By Matt Johnson
It’s still early, but it appears as though homicides in 2017 in Chicago are ahead of 2016 data. Last year at this time in January of 2016, there were 44 homicides. However, homicides are ahead by two at 46 in 2017. That’s a 4.5 percent increase from 2016. If this rate keeps up, it is projected that Chicago will see 60 homicides for the month of January.
As the graph illustrates, blue is the number of crimes as of January 25th of its respective year while red is the number of homicides January ended with. This obviously is not a good start to the year considering homicides in Chicago increased by more than 56 percent in 2016.
In addition, the majority of these 46 homicides so far reside in the Austin and Garfield Park neighborhoods at 9 and 8 homicides, respectively. Of the 798 homicides last year, Austin experienced 92 homicides while Garfield Park experienced 58 homicides.
For the Austin neighborhood, that was 11.5 percent of the total number of homicides in 2016; and for the Garfield Park neighborhood, that was about 7.3 percent of the total number of homicides in 2016. Together, that was nearly 19 percent, or nearly 1/5, of the total number of homicides that occurred in Chicago in 2016.
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Finally, if this 4.5 percent increase in homicides keeps pace for the remainder of the year, it is projected there will be more than 830 homicides, or nearly 40 more homicides. However, this projection does not include the summer months of June, July, and August, which historically see much higher numbers of crimes across the board: violent and non-violent crimes.
Remember, these homicides are happening in areas that are economically depressed. So homicides are just the tip of the iceberg.
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Categories: Urban Dynamics Blog