Politics Blog

2018 Election Prediction Follow-up: The Great Compromise

By Matt Johnson

As I stated in my previous blog 2018 Election Prediction – The Real One, there was one way the Democrats could win and there were three ways the Republicans could win. The one way the Democrats could win was by taking the House and the Senate. The reasoning for this claim was predicated on at least two factors set forth by mainstream news organizations and pundits.

First, the President’s party has at times, historically, lost a considerable number of seats from both houses. This happened in 1974, 1994, 2006 and 2010, according to the article Why the President’s Party Loses Seats in the Midterm Elections. And second, the President at times has appeared to have demonstrated a bigotry problem as reported by the BBCTime Magazine, CNN, The New York Times, and The Washington Post. Thus, as the logic goes, citizens will see the light and vote for what’s right.

Of course, all of this reporting could simply be a case of “11 x 0 = banana,” as Scott Adams has argued on numerous occasions in his Real Coffee with Scott Adams videos. But the morality of the President’s philosophy and the moral philosophy of his supporters is not what’s in question here. It is the mid-term prediction itself and why it is a win for the Republicans.

Continuing, there were three ways the Republicans could win the mid-term elections. First, the Republicans could have won by maintaining the House and the Senate in some form or another.

In other words, they could have won by losing and gaining seats in the House, but remained at about the same proportion of representatives; and they could have won by losing and gaining seats in the Senate, but remained at about the same proportion of Senators. Hence, there would have been no change.

Second, the Republicans could have won by increasing the number of seats in the House and the number of seats in the Senate. That is, the Republicans could have obtained absolute political power, where they could have passed any bill through Congress without any kind opposition by the Democrats. In other words, the Democrats would have been observers like fans at a baseball game.

And third, the Republicans could have won by losing the House and winning the Senate, and of course this last scenario is actually what happened. The Republicans lost more than two dozen seats in the House but they also picked up a couple of seats in the Senate.

So why did the Republicans win? First, the Republicans ensured that the Democrats will not be able impeach President Trump. Thus, the Senate has veto power on any type of impeachment process that the Democrats may wish to facilitate. Second, the President will be able to push through his next Supreme Court candidate with little to no opposition.

And finally, the Senate, along with the President, will be able to control the narrative of federal legislation for at least two more years. That is, if the Democrats want to push any federal policies, they will have to work and compromise with the Senate and the President. If not, the Democrats’ hard work will be vetoed on a fairly regular basis and the Republicans will be able to maintain what they got.

 

Matt Johnson is a writer for The Systems Scientist – the Politics blog and the Urban Dynamics blog. He is also a trained mathematical scientist who is interested in applied mathematics, specifically modern algebra and probability theory, economic systems, behavioral economics and game theory, political theory, social psychology, and software development and software engineering. And finally, he has contributed to the Iowa State Daily and Our Black News.

You can connect with him directly in the comments section, and follow him on Facebook

You can also follow The Systems Scientist on Facebook.

Photo credit: Wikipedia Commons

 

 

 

 

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