# Minneapolis: Labor Market Update, July 2017, Part 1

In today’s blog, we will be exploring the labor market in Minneapolis from the perspective of the labor force and the number of employed. It will be important for us to remember that these two economic systems’ variables measure the growth of a labor market.

### Labor Force

There are two things to consider when viewing labor force data. First, what is a labor force? A labor force are those workers within a labor market who are willing to work: those who have jobs and those who don’t have jobs but are looking for employment. Second, how is a labor force computed? The number is computed by adding the number of employed and the number of unemployed (those actively looking for jobs) in the labor market. Note, the number of unemployed will be addressed in Part 2.

Mathematically, this is illustrated by the following equation:

Labor Force = Number of Employed + Number of Unemployed

Looking at the Minneapolis labor force – the number of employed plus the number of unemployed – it is clear that the labor force has been increasing since at least January of 2006.

Moreove, this increasing behavior is not only observed via the flunctuating nature of this probabilistic system, but via the linearization of the data in the form of the y = mx + b equation embedded in Graph 1. Recalling basic algebra, m is the slope of the equation (the change of the labor force over the change in time) and b is the intercept, i.e., the starting point. Of course, this is an extremely simplified and rudimentary way of viewing this labor market system; but it illustrates the point nonetheless. That is, the Minneapolis labor market has been increasing for quite some time despite internal and external systems’ forces.

There are other dynamics playing out in this labor force system, but those dynamics will be set aside for the time being.

### Number of Employed

The number of employed is another part of the labor force. In this case, the data provides insights into moments in time when the number of employed decreased and moments in time when the number of employed increased. For example, from the late summer of 2008 through the early summer of 2009, the number of employed decreased in Minneapolis. But since then, the number of employed has been steadily, although stochastically, increasing.

Again, the overall behavior can be observed via the linearization of the data in the form of the y = mx + b equation embedded in Graph 2. That is, m is the slope of the equation (the change of the labor force over the change in time) and b is the intercept. And one final observation should be noted, clearly the system’s behavior of the number of employed in Minneapolis has been more variable and pronounced than that of the system’s behavior of the labor force in Minneapolis.

So what do we know about the labor market in Minneapolis from these two systems’ variables? First, the labor force has increased overall by 31,326 since January of 2006.  Second, the number of employed in Minneapolis has increased overall by 31,152 since January of 2006. In other words, these two variables indicate a growing labor market.

In the next labor market blog, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed over the same time period in Minneapolis will be explored. Together, all four of these systems’ variables – labor force, number of employed, number of unemployed, and unemployment rate – will illustrate the strength and growth of the Minneapolis labor market.

Matt has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. He is also a professional member of the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics and the International Society for the Systems Sciences and a scholarly member of Omicron Delta Epsilon, which is an International Honors Society for Economics.

Photo Credit: Jason Riedy, Flickr

In Sunday’s Data Dump, we compared and contrasted the 4th and 5th Wards crime behavior with respect to the crime behavior of the Downtown West neighborhood. From our observations, we first saw that Downtown West experienced more reported crimes, 262, than the 4th Ward, 190, and the 5th Ward, 261. Recall, we were comparing and contrasting a neighborhood against groups of neighborhoods, so clearly crime in the Downtown West neighborhood has been much more pronounced.

Second, we observed that the north side of the city experienced a greater proportion of violent crimes than the Downtown West neighborhood. In other words, we observed that the violent to non-violent crime ratio, i.e., violent/non-violent, was 30/70 for the 4th and 5th Wards and 20/80 for the Downtown West neighborhood.

But what happens to the ratios if we compare and contrast July of 2017 reported crimes against July of 2016 reported crimes? Will we observe a decrease in overall reported crimes between July of 2016 and July of 2017? And will we see the violent/non-violent ratios change?

### Table 1: 4th Ward Crime in July 2017

 Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total Folwell 0 4 2 11 9 14 3 0 43 Webber-Camden 0 0 4 7 10 13 5 0 39 Lind-Bohanon 0 1 1 3 8 16 2 0 31 Cleveland 0 0 1 12 2 7 3 2 27 McKinley 0 1 2 5 1 7 1 0 17 Victory 0 1 0 1 4 7 2 0 15 Shingle Creek 0 0 0 1 3 8 0 0 12 Camden Industrial 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 0 6 Humboldt Industrial Area 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 7 11 40 38 74 18 2 190 (Crime/Total) x 100% 0 3.68 5.79 21.1 20.0 38.9 9.47 1.05 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

According to Table 1, we observe that there were 190 reported crimes in the 4th Ward in July of 2017. In comparison, we observe there were 170 reported crimes in July of 2016.

Applying a simple computation of percent change, we see that reported crimes overall increased by about 11.8 percent between July of 2016 and July of 2017.  Of course, it should be understood that these results pertain to the 2016 and months of July. The data and percent differences do not tell us anything about the dynamics or systems behaviors of the 4th Ward, 5th, and Downtown West neighborhood outside of the months of July.

Moving along, we observed that the violent/non-violent reported crime ratio was 30/70 in July of 2017. Utilizing Table 2, we can observe that these ratio has changed. In July of 2016, we see that about 37 percent of the reported crimes were violent crime and about 63 percent of the reported crimes were non-violent crimes – 37/63 ratio.

To find the differences between reported violent crimes between July of 2017 and July of 2016 and reported non-violent crimes between July of 2017 and July of 2016, we can once again utilize our difference formula as follows:

4th Ward violent crime change = (July 2017 – July of 2016) = (30% – 37%) = – 7 % which means violent crime decreased by 7% although overall crime increased by 11.8%.

4th Ward non-violent crime change = (July 2017 – July of 2016) = (70% – 63%) = 7% which means non-violent crime increased by 7% while overall crime increased by 11.8%.

A deeper analysis of the data would be required to see which crimes contributed to the 11.8 percent increase in overall crime.

### Table 2: 4th Ward Crime in July 2016

 Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total Folwell 0 1 4 10 3 15 5 0 38 Webber-Camden 0 2 6 11 5 8 4 0 36 Lind-Bohanon 0 1 4 6 7 6 6 0 30 Cleveland 1 0 1 3 5 7 4 21 McKinley 0 1 1 5 4 7 3 0 217 Victory 0 0 0 1 6 5 1 0 13 Shingle Creek 0 0 3 1 0 2 2 0 8 Camden Industrial 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 Humboldt Industrial Area 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 Total 1 5 19 38 30 52 25 0 170 (Crime/Total) x 100% 0.59 2.94 11.2 22.4 17.6 30.6 14.7 0.00 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

So what does all of this mean? First, overall reported crimes in the 4th Ward did increase when comparing July of 2016 and July of 2017. But of course this system’s behavior only provides an overall observation of the 4th Ward system with respect to crime. Second, violent crimes were 7 percent lower in July of 2017 when compared to July of 2016 and non-violent crimes were 7 percent higher in July of 2017 when compared to July of 2016. In other words, bodily harm crimes decreased while property crimes increased.

Finally, it should be noted that these computations do not take into account the geographical locations of the reported violent and non-violent crimes. To do that, the violent and non-violent ratios of each neighborhood in the 4th Ward would need to be taken into account.  For example, the most obvious place to start would be the Folwell neighborhood since it experienced the most reported crimes in the 4th Ward in both July of 2016 and July of 2017 (note: this exercise can be repeated for all of the neighborhoods in the 4th Ward).

According to the difference formula, the Folwell neighborhood experienced a reported violent/non-violent crime ratio of about 39/61 compared to a violent/non-violent crime ratio of about 37/63 overall in the 4th Ward in July of 2016. So violent crime was greater for the Folwell neighborhood than the 4th Ward in July of 2016.

Moreover,  the Folwell neighborhood experienced a violent/non-violent reported crime ratio of about 40/60 in July of 2017 compared to a violent/non-violent crime ratio of about 30/70 in the 4th Ward in July of 2017. So while violent crime increased in the Folwell neighborhood in July of 2017 by a percentage point, violent crime decreased overall in the 4th Ward in July of 2017 by 7 percentage points, and this isn’t addressing the dynamics of how these violent/non-violent ratios change over time.

The dynamics of this system, and the other systems in Minneapolis will be explored and illustrated in future blogs. For now, we have some facts to chew on and notions to explore.

Until then, do you believe local city council members in Minneapolis, and Mayor Betsy Hodges for that matter, are aware of such data? Do you believe their knowledge of these systems and how they behave over time is this sophisticated? And if their knowledge is this sophisticated, how do you know? What evidence do you have?

Data takeaways:

1. When comparing July 2016 and July 2017, reported crimes increased by 11.8 percent in the 4th Ward.
2. When comparing July 2016 and July 2017, reported violent crimes decreased by 7% in the 4th Ward.
3. When comparing July 2016 and July 2017, reported non-violent crimes increased by 7% in the 4th Ward.

Matt has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. He is also a professional member of the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics and the International Society for the Systems Sciences and a scholarly member of Omicron Delta Epsilon, which is an International Honors Society for Economics.

Photo Credit: Tony Webster, Flickr

# Sunday Data Dump: North side crime in Minneapolis in July 2017

The Minneapolis City government elections are slowing approaching. The big day is Tuesday, November 7th. And so the mission of this blog until November 7th is to provide data sets relevant to the mayoral race and the city council races, for which there are 13 council seats. Today’s data dump provides July crime data for two of those council seats – the 4th and 5th Wards. It should be noted that these two wards reside on the north side of Minneapolis.

There are a couple of things to consider while sifting through the data in Table 1Table 2, and Table 3. First, the total number of reported crimes for both wards together is 451. Second, the distribution of violent and non-violent crimes in the 4th Ward is fairly similar to the distribution of violent and non-violent crimes in the 5th Ward.

### Table 1: 4th Ward Crime

 Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total Folwell 0 4 2 11 9 14 3 0 43 Webber-Camden 0 0 4 7 10 13 5 0 39 Lind-Bohanon 0 1 1 3 8 16 2 0 31 Cleveland 0 0 1 12 2 7 3 2 27 McKinley 0 1 2 5 1 7 1 0 17 Victory 0 1 0 1 4 7 2 0 15 Shingle Creek 0 0 0 1 3 8 0 0 12 Camden Industrial 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 0 6 Humboldt Industrial Area 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 7 11 40 38 74 18 2 190 (Crime/Total) x 100% 0 3.68 5.79 21.1 20.0 38.9 9.47 1.05 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

For example,  violent crimes accounted for 31 percent of all reported crimes in the 4th Ward in July. Similarly, violent crimes accounted for 30.3 percent of all reported crimes in the 5th Ward in July. And of course this means that the reported non-violent crimes for the 4th Ward in July were about the same for the non-violent crimes for the 5th Ward in July.

It should be noted that the difference between violent crime and non-violent crime is the component of bodily harm. This means that homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault are violent crimes because they include bodily harm, while burglary, larceny, auto theft, and arson are non-violent crimes because they don’t include bodily harm.

As information and a useful potential tool,  this violent/non-violent distribution can be viewed as 30/70. That is, 30 percent of the reported crimes in the 4th and 5th Wards are violent and 70 percent of the reported crimes in the 4th and 5th Wards are non-violent.

### Table 2: 5th Ward Crime

 Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total Jordan 0 0 8 17 10 22 5 1 63 Hawthorne 0 6 6 11 4 21 4 1 51 North Loop 0 0 4 0 3 39 3 0 49 Near-North 1 0 4 8 2 31 2 0 48 Willard-Hay 1 2 5 5 5 9 7 0 34 Harrison 0 1 0 2 3 7 0 0 13 Sumner-Glenwood 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 3 Total 2 7 27 43 27 132 21 2 261 (Crime/Total) x 100% 0.77 2.68 10.3 16.5 10.3 50.6 8.05 0.77 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

This 30/70 fact can now be compared and contrasted with other wards and neighborhoods, for example, the Downtown West neighborhood. The first observation to glean from the three data sets is that Downtown West experienced more crime in July than the 4th and 5th Wards: 262, 261, 190.

It should be noted that the Downtown West neighborhood was addressed in the Wednesday Data Dump: The most crime ridden neighborhood in Minneapolis in 2017.

Second, 20.3 percent of the reported crimes in the Downtown West neighborhood are violent and 79.7 percent of the reported crimes are non-violent, or 20/80. This comparison illustrates that the north side wards experience about 10 percent more violent crime than Downtown West, which is the most crime ridden neighborhood in Minneapolis. Going forward, the difference between 30/70 and 20/80 will provide some interesting insights into what is happening between the respective systems.

### Table 3: Downtown West Crime

 Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total Downtown West 1 4 30 18 8 195 6 0 262 (Crime/Total) x 100% 0.38 1.53 11.5 6.87 3.05 74.4 2.29 0 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

For now, this difference in violent crime data observations should elicit curiosity and questions. For instance, why might this difference be? What factors could contribute to the greater number of violent crimes on the north side? Obviously, these are just two questions that derive from the data. These aren’t questions that derive from political narratives.

And so this begs the question, are candidates like Nekima Levy-Pounds (mayoral candidate/former president of the NAACP), Jacob Frey (mayoral candidate/3rd Ward Council Member), Blong Yang (5th Ward Council Member), or Barbara Johnson (4th Ward Council Member) aware of the crime data in the 4th and 5th Wards and the Downtown West neighborhood?

Another question to ponder is, do Barbara Johnson, Blong Yang, and Jacob Frey receive weekly or monthly economic data profiles, including crime, for their respective wards? This question is asked because crime has been increasing over the past four years, for example, between 2010 and 2013, there were a total of  9,293 reported crimes; whereas, between 2014 and today, there have been a total of 9,598 and there are still 5 months of crime data left to report. And to be considerate, would a Mayor Nekima Levy-Pounds consider such a tool-kit?

Matt has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. He is also a professional member of the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics and the International Society for the Systems Sciences and a scholarly member of Omicron Delta Epsilon, which is an International Honors Society for Economics.

Photo Credit: Blong Yang, 5th Ward Council Member, Wikimedia Commons

# Thursday Data Dump: Foreclosures in Minneapolis in 2016

As today’s data will illustrate, foreclosures are not distributed throughout the city equally. So here are a couple of things to keep in mind while sifting through this data table.

First, 37 percent of the foreclosures in Minneapolis resided on the north side of the city in 2016 – 22.4 percent of the foreclosures were in the 4th Ward and 14.6 percent of the foreclosures were in the 5th Ward.

Second, these were the only two wards with a foreclosure percentage greater than 10 percent. Of course, these two wards have been like this for sometime.

I wrote about this very subject a few times back in 2015. As I explained back then in A Comparison of Minneapolis’ Foreclosure Rates by Ward and Foreclosure Rates: Wards 4, 5, and 10 from 2006 to 2015, the 4th and 5th Wards accounted for about 40 percent of the foreclosures in the city. And as this current data illustrates, these two wards still account for about the same percentage.

### Minneapolis: 2016 Foreclosure Data

 Ward 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter Total Percent 1 3 7 8 5 23 6.71 2 6 3 4 1 14 4.08 3 2 4 4 8 18 5.25 4 26 16 19 16 77 22.4 5 19 17 7 7 50 14.6 6 3 5 1 1 10 2.92 7 2 4 4 3 13 3.79 8 9 7 8 5 29 8.45 9 13 5 7 3 28 8.16 10 3 1 4 2 10 2.92 11 6 8 4 3 21 6.12 12 5 7 9 12 33 9.62 13 4 6 4 3 17 4.96 Total 101 90 83 69 343 100.0

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

So as far as proportionality is concerned, not much has changed.

The bright side is that foreclosures have definitely decreased in both wards. However, the question is what will happen to these wards when the market decides to take another nose dive?

The 4th and 5th Wards are not as economically stable as other parts of the city. But the point here is that education, as we’ve seen, provides greater earnings power, and thus greater economic stability and security. Of course as the readers of this blog know very well, earnings increases with education according to the data that has been observed so far.

So it should follow that more education will facilitate greater earnings which will in turn facilitate greater economic stability and security which in turn will decrease foreclosures.

Going forward, what does the foreclosure data look like for 2017 and how does it compare to 2016? And what does the system’s behavior of this foreclosure data look like over the period of a few years? Are foreclosures decreasing throughout Minneapolis and are there any wards  that are bucking this trend? And the big question, will this even have an impact on the mayoral and city council races?

Matt has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. He is also a professional member of the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics and the International Society for the Systems Sciences and a scholarly member of Omicron Delta Epsilon, which is an International Honors Society for Economics.

Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons

There are a couple of things to consider while sifting through today’s data. First, crime increases as the year progresses. This is a pretty common pattern in cities in the midwest, where temperatures change as the seasons change and there can be a 120 degree temperature difference between the middle of summer and the middle of winter. Second, larceny is the most abundant crime in the Downtown West neighborhood at 73 percent. Robbery is second at 11.2 percent.

### Table 1: Crime in the Downtown West Neighborhood

 Month Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total Jan 1 5 19 9 8 139 6 0 187 Feb 0 2 19 13 8 137 9 0 188 Mar 0 6 14 7 6 158 6 0 197 Apr 0 0 13 20 12 145 10 0 200 May 0 4 35 17 4 133 3 0 196 June 0 7 33 9 13 155 7 0 224 July 1 4 30 18 8 195 6 0 262 Total 2 28 163 93 59 1062 47 0 1454 (Crime/Total) x 100% 0.14 1.93 11.2 6.40 4.06 73.0 3.23 0 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

And finally, there have been 1,454 reported crimes in the Downtown West neighborhood through July 31st according to the data in Table 1. Minneapolis as a whole has experienced 13,511 reported crimes through July 31st. With a simple computation, Downtown West has experienced approximately 11 percent of the reported crimes in the City of Lakes.

Comparing Downtown west to the other 6 neighborhoods in Table 2, a simple computation will show that Downtown West contained about 38 percent of the reported crimes in the Top 7 neighborhoods. So two questions reveal themselves immediately. First, is it normal for Downtown West to contain 11 percent of the crimes in Minneapolis? What would the historical data say? And second, is it normal for Downtown West to contain 38 percent of the reported crimes in the Top 7 neighborhoods? Again, what would the historical data say?

### Table 2: Crime in the Top 7 Neighborhoods

 Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total Downtown West 1 4 30 18 8 195 6 0 262 Whittier 0 1 6 5 12 59 5 0 88 Loring Park 0 2 7 3 2 55 3 0 72 Longfellow 0 1 6 2 12 46 3 0 70 Lowry Hills East 0 3 3 6 11 43 3 0 69 Marcy Holmes 0 1 5 2 6 40 12 0 66 Jordan 0 0 8 17 10 22 5 1 63 Total 1 12 65 53 61 460 37 1 690 (Crime/Total) x 100% 0.14 1.74 9.42 7.68 8.84 66.7 5.36 0.14 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

Downtown West was the most crime ridden neighborhood in Minneapolis. And it has been this way for sometime. This is nothing new. Although Graph 1 doesn’t provide contrasting, dynamical data with any of the other neighborhoods in Minneapolis, it does provide a few details concerning this system behavior nonetheless. For example, it appears as though there have been more reported crimes between 2014 and today than there were between 2010 and 2013.

This is indeed the case. Between 2010 and 2013, there were a total of  9,293 reported crimes in the Downtown West neighborhood; and between 2014 and today, there have been a total of 9,598 in the Downtown neighborhood (a 3.3 percent increase for those keeping track), and there are still 5 months of crime data left to report. This fact illustrates that crime has not only increased from last year, but it has been increasing for a longer period time. And so what will this mean for the Minneapolis mayoral race and city council races?

A couple of tidbits to ponder until the next data dump. Downtown West resides in Ward 3 and Ward 7. Ward 3 is represented by Jacob Frey. Council Member Frey is currently running for Mayor of Minneapolis. Second, Ward 7 is represented by Lisa Goodman, who is also up for re-election. Apparently, Lisa Goodman likes to put her already chewed gum in another person’s hand, i.e., Teqen Zéa-Aida, who is also running for the Ward 7 city council seat. Weird. Perhaps focusing on crime would be better time spent?

Matt Johnson is a blogger/writer for The Systems Scientist and the Urban Dynamics blog. He has also contributed to the Iowa State Daily and Our Black News.

Matt has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. He is also a professional member of the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics and the International Society for the Systems Sciences and a scholarly member of Omicron Delta Epsilon, which is an International Honors Society for Economics.

Photo Credit: The Systems Scientist