There are a couple of things to consider while sifting through today’s data. First, crime increases as the year progresses. This is a pretty common pattern in cities in the midwest, where temperatures change as the seasons change and there can be a 120 degree temperature difference between the middle of summer and the middle of winter. Second, larceny is the most abundant crime in the Downtown West neighborhood at 73 percent. Robbery is second at 11.2 percent.
Table 1: Crime in the Downtown West Neighborhood
|Month||Homicide||Rape||Robbery||Aggravated Assault||Burglary||Larceny||Auto Theft||Arson||Total|
|(Crime/Total) x 100%||0.14||1.93||11.2||6.40||4.06||73.0||3.23||0||100|
(Source: City of Minneapolis)
And finally, there have been 1,454 reported crimes in the Downtown West neighborhood through July 31st according to the data in Table 1. Minneapolis as a whole has experienced 13,511 reported crimes through July 31st. With a simple computation, Downtown West has experienced approximately 11 percent of the reported crimes in the City of Lakes.
Comparing Downtown west to the other 6 neighborhoods in Table 2, a simple computation will show that Downtown West contained about 38 percent of the reported crimes in the Top 7 neighborhoods. So two questions reveal themselves immediately. First, is it normal for Downtown West to contain 11 percent of the crimes in Minneapolis? What would the historical data say? And second, is it normal for Downtown West to contain 38 percent of the reported crimes in the Top 7 neighborhoods? Again, what would the historical data say?
Table 2: Crime in the Top 7 Neighborhoods
|Neighborhood||Homicide||Rape||Robbery||Aggravated Assault||Burglary||Larceny||Auto Theft||Arson||Total|
|Lowry Hills East||0||3||3||6||11||43||3||0||69|
|(Crime/Total) x 100%||0.14||1.74||9.42||7.68||8.84||66.7||5.36||0.14||100|
(Source: City of Minneapolis)
Downtown West was the most crime ridden neighborhood in Minneapolis. And it has been this way for sometime. This is nothing new. Although Graph 1 doesn’t provide contrasting, dynamical data with any of the other neighborhoods in Minneapolis, it does provide a few details concerning this system behavior nonetheless. For example, it appears as though there have been more reported crimes between 2014 and today than there were between 2010 and 2013.
This is indeed the case. Between 2010 and 2013, there were a total of 9,293 reported crimes in the Downtown West neighborhood; and between 2014 and today, there have been a total of 9,598 in the Downtown neighborhood (a 3.3 percent increase for those keeping track), and there are still 5 months of crime data left to report. This fact illustrates that crime has not only increased from last year, but it has been increasing for a longer period time. And so what will this mean for the Minneapolis mayoral race and city council races?
A couple of tidbits to ponder until the next data dump. Downtown West resides in Ward 3 and Ward 7. Ward 3 is represented by Jacob Frey. Council Member Frey is currently running for Mayor of Minneapolis. Second, Ward 7 is represented by Lisa Goodman, who is also up for re-election. Apparently, Lisa Goodman likes to put her already chewed gum in another person’s hand, i.e., Teqen Zéa-Aida, who is also running for the Ward 7 city council seat. Weird. Perhaps focusing on crime would be better time spent?
Matt has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. He is also a professional member of the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics and the International Society for the Systems Sciences and a scholarly member of Omicron Delta Epsilon, which is an International Honors Society for Economics.
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