Tag: Data Science

Sunday Data Dump: North side crime in Minneapolis in July 2017

The Minneapolis City government elections are slowing approaching. The big day is Tuesday, November 7th. And so the mission of this blog until November 7th is to provide data sets relevant to the mayoral race and the city council races, for which there are 13 council seats. Today’s data dump provides July crime data for two of those council seats – the 4th and 5th Wards. It should be noted that these two wards reside on the north side of Minneapolis.

There are a couple of things to consider while sifting through the data in Table 1Table 2, and Table 3. First, the total number of reported crimes for both wards together is 451. Second, the distribution of violent and non-violent crimes in the 4th Ward is fairly similar to the distribution of violent and non-violent crimes in the 5th Ward.

Table 1: 4th Ward Crime

Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total
Folwell 0 4 2 11 9 14 3 0 43
Webber-Camden 0 0 4 7 10 13 5 0 39
Lind-Bohanon 0 1 1 3 8 16 2 0 31
Cleveland 0 0 1 12 2 7 3 2 27
McKinley 0 1 2 5 1 7 1 0 17
Victory 0 1 0 1 4 7 2 0 15
Shingle Creek 0 0 0 1 3 8 0 0 12
Camden Industrial 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 0 6
Humboldt Industrial Area 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 7 11 40 38 74 18 2 190
(Crime/Total) x 100% 0 3.68 5.79 21.1 20.0 38.9 9.47 1.05 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

For example,  violent crimes accounted for 31 percent of all reported crimes in the 4th Ward in July. Similarly, violent crimes accounted for 30.3 percent of all reported crimes in the 5th Ward in July. And of course this means that the reported non-violent crimes for the 4th Ward in July were about the same for the non-violent crimes for the 5th Ward in July.

It should be noted that the difference between violent crime and non-violent crime is the component of bodily harm. This means that homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault are violent crimes because they include bodily harm, while burglary, larceny, auto theft, and arson are non-violent crimes because they don’t include bodily harm.

As information and a useful potential tool,  this violent/non-violent distribution can be viewed as 30/70. That is, 30 percent of the reported crimes in the 4th and 5th Wards are violent and 70 percent of the reported crimes in the 4th and 5th Wards are non-violent.

Table 2: 5th Ward Crime

Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total
Jordan 0 0 8 17 10 22 5 1 63
Hawthorne 0 6 6 11 4 21 4 1 51
North Loop 0 0 4 0 3 39 3 0 49
Near-North 1 0 4 8 2 31 2 0 48
Willard-Hay 1 2 5 5 5 9 7 0 34
Harrison 0 1 0 2 3 7 0 0 13
Sumner-Glenwood 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 3
Total 2 7 27 43 27 132 21 2 261
(Crime/Total) x 100% 0.77 2.68 10.3 16.5 10.3 50.6 8.05 0.77 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

This 30/70 fact can now be compared and contrasted with other wards and neighborhoods, for example, the Downtown West neighborhood. The first observation to glean from the three data sets is that Downtown West experienced more crime in July than the 4th and 5th Wards: 262, 261, 190.

It should be noted that the Downtown West neighborhood was addressed in the Wednesday Data Dump: The most crime ridden neighborhood in Minneapolis in 2017.

Second, 20.3 percent of the reported crimes in the Downtown West neighborhood are violent and 79.7 percent of the reported crimes are non-violent, or 20/80. This comparison illustrates that the north side wards experience about 10 percent more violent crime than Downtown West, which is the most crime ridden neighborhood in Minneapolis. Going forward, the difference between 30/70 and 20/80 will provide some interesting insights into what is happening between the respective systems.

Table 3: Downtown West Crime

Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total
Downtown West 1 4 30 18 8 195 6 0 262
(Crime/Total) x 100% 0.38 1.53 11.5 6.87 3.05 74.4 2.29 0 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

For now, this difference in violent crime data observations should elicit curiosity and questions. For instance, why might this difference be? What factors could contribute to the greater number of violent crimes on the north side? Obviously, these are just two questions that derive from the data. These aren’t questions that derive from political narratives.

And so this begs the question, are candidates like Nekima Levy-Pounds (mayoral candidate/former president of the NAACP), Jacob Frey (mayoral candidate/3rd Ward Council Member), Blong Yang (5th Ward Council Member), or Barbara Johnson (4th Ward Council Member) aware of the crime data in the 4th and 5th Wards and the Downtown West neighborhood?

Another question to ponder is, do Barbara Johnson, Blong Yang, and Jacob Frey receive weekly or monthly economic data profiles, including crime, for their respective wards? This question is asked because crime has been increasing over the past four years, for example, between 2010 and 2013, there were a total of  9,293 reported crimes; whereas, between 2014 and today, there have been a total of 9,598 and there are still 5 months of crime data left to report. And to be considerate, would a Mayor Nekima Levy-Pounds consider such a tool-kit?

 

Matt has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. He is also a professional member of the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics and the International Society for the Systems Sciences and a scholarly member of Omicron Delta Epsilon, which is an International Honors Society for Economics. 

You can connect with him directly in the comments section, and follow him on Facebook

You can also follow The Systems Scientist on Twitter or Facebook.

 

Photo Credit: Blong Yang, 5th Ward Council Member, Wikimedia Commons

 

 

 

 

 

 

Copyright ©2017 – The Systems Scientist

The Bright Side of the Blight Side of Minneapolis

As we know, the 55411 zip code, which is in Minneapolis’ 5th Ward on the north side of the city, has the most depressed economic system in Minneapolis. It has the highest concentration of condemned and vacant buildings; it has the second highest concentration of foreclosures (the 4th Ward has the most); it has the highest unemployment rate in the city; and it has the second highest crime density in the city (the 3rd Ward has the highest).

But we also know from our previous articles that the 55411 zip code is a subsystem of the Minneapolis system. This means that the 55411 satisfies the (3) systems’ axioms:

  1. A system consists of a set of elements.
  2. Elements in a system interact.
  3. A system has a function, or purpose.

It has a system’s boundary and behavior (how a system’s performance changes over time) for which condemned and vacant buildings, foreclosures, the unemployment rate, and crime are all examples of in this economic system. But how does the systems’ behaviors of educational attainment of the 55411 zip code compare to the educational attainment of Minneapolis?

Do the residents of the 55411 experience greater earnings with greater attainment of education? Is it the case that a person from the north side zip code would earn more with a college degree than a person from the north side without a college degree? Is there a correlation between education and earnings in the 55411 zip code?

Graph 1

As Graph 1 of the Minneapolis system illustrates, there is an obvious increase in wages as a person’s education increases. That is, the odds are good that a person with a high school diploma will make more than a person with less than a high school education; a person with some college will more than likely make more than a person with a high school education; a person with a college degree will more than likely make more than a person without a college degree; and a person with a graduate level education will more than likely make more than a person with only a college degree.

And so the question is, will the 55411 zip code follow this system’s behavior? Indeed it will.

Graph 2

Considering the sensitivity of the marketplace on the north side, this is really remarkable. And despite the number of adverse economic conditions in the 55411 zip code, education is still a game changer. The question is now, would this behavior remain stable during a great recession just like a few years ago? And would Minneapolis policy makers utilize this data?

Indeed there are obvious differences in earnings from educational attainment between the 55411 and Minneapolis. But the fact remains, this is a bright side to blight side of Minneapolis.

 

Matt Johnson is a blogger/writer for The Systems Scientist and the Urban Dynamics blog. He has also contributed to the Iowa State Daily and Our Black News. Matt has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. 

You can connect with him directly in the comments section, and follow him on Facebook

You can also follow The Systems Scientist on Twitter or Facebook.

 

Photo Credit: army.mil

 

 

 

 

 

Copyright ©2017 – The Systems Scientist

Chicagoland: 2017 Homicides through June, Update!

In a previous article Chicagoland: Systems Axioms, Boundaries, and 2017 Homicides through June this blog reported the total number of homicides for the first 6 months of 2017 was 329. This total was taken from the most current data provided by the Chicago Tribune.

However, these numbers do change from time to time. According to the most current Chicago Tribune data, the total number of homicides through 2017 now stands at 333. This means that 2017 homicide data is now on pace with 2016 homicide data: 333 homicides in 2016 through June and 333 homicides in 2017 through June.

Graph 1

We’ve built a system’s foundation over the past few articles. We’ve established the (3) systems’ axioms, we’ve provided examples of systems’ boundaries, and we’ve illustrated systems’ behaviors; and now we can these axioms and notions to provide a greater understanding of what the homicide data is telling us.

We know Chicago is a system with boundaries and behaviors. If we differentiate 2016 from 2017, we can identify similarities and differences in Chicago’s homicide behavior; that is, how a system’s performance changes over time. In this case, we mean the lower the number of homicides, the better the performance of this system.

Why is this the case? This is because economic utility is inversely proportional to crime and therefore homicides. In other words, as crime increases, economic utility decreases, and as crime decreases, economic utility increases. However, it should be noted that there are exceptions to this rule, for example, Downtown Minneapolis.

By observing the data in Graph 1, we can see that there aren’t many significant differences between 2016 data and 2017 data. Of course, there are months in 2016 that contain a greater number of homicides than there are months in 2017 and visa versa.

For example, there were more homicides in January, March, and May of 2016 than in those same months in 2017. In contrast, there were more homicides in February, April, and June of this year than those same months in 2016.

The greatest difference between the two years has been the months of May and June. For instance, there were 12 more homicides in May of 2016, 68 in total or approximately 17.5 percent, than in May of 2017. In comparison, there were 11 more homicides in June of 2017, 84 in total or approximately 15 percent, than in June of 2016. But overall, the behavior of the Chicago system of 2017 has been similar to the behavior of the Chicago system of 2016.

Either way, this system’s behavior is going to continue to depress economic utility in some parts of Chicago where these homicides are concentrated. And as the readers of this blog now, homicide distribution is not equal throughout Chicago.

This is because the neighborhoods of Austin, Englewood, Garfield Park, and North Lawndale to name a few continue to experience high numbers of homicides and high numbers of crime in general year after year. In contrast, the neighborhoods of Edison Park, North Park, Forest Glen, and Hegewisch to name a few do not experience such adverse systems’ variables, and of course this is good.

But how can adverse systems’ variables be addressed either by economic and public policy or by market solutions in these depressed subsystems of Chicago? Or perhaps these systems’ challenges could be addressed with a combination of government and marketplace solutions in these depressed subsystems of Chicago?

Let us now, as we have done before, attempt to disprove our notions and work in the tradition of natural philosophy until the next blog.

 

Matt Johnson is a blogger/writer for The Systems Scientist and the Urban Dynamics blog. He has also contributed to the Iowa State Daily and Our Black News. Matt has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. 

You can connect with him directly in the comments section, and follow him on Facebook

You can also follow The Systems Scientist on Twitter or Facebook.

 

Photo Credit: Pixabay

 

 

 

 

 

Copyright ©2017 – The Systems Scientist