Tag: Homicide Data

Chicagoland: 2017 Homicides through June, Update!

In a previous article Chicagoland: Systems Axioms, Boundaries, and 2017 Homicides through June this blog reported the total number of homicides for the first 6 months of 2017 was 329. This total was taken from the most current data provided by the Chicago Tribune.

However, these numbers do change from time to time. According to the most current Chicago Tribune data, the total number of homicides through 2017 now stands at 333. This means that 2017 homicide data is now on pace with 2016 homicide data: 333 homicides in 2016 through June and 333 homicides in 2017 through June.

Graph 1

We’ve built a system’s foundation over the past few articles. We’ve established the (3) systems’ axioms, we’ve provided examples of systems’ boundaries, and we’ve illustrated systems’ behaviors; and now we can these axioms and notions to provide a greater understanding of what the homicide data is telling us.

We know Chicago is a system with boundaries and behaviors. If we differentiate 2016 from 2017, we can identify similarities and differences in Chicago’s homicide behavior; that is, how a system’s performance changes over time. In this case, we mean the lower the number of homicides, the better the performance of this system.

Why is this the case? This is because economic utility is inversely proportional to crime and therefore homicides. In other words, as crime increases, economic utility decreases, and as crime decreases, economic utility increases. However, it should be noted that there are exceptions to this rule, for example, Downtown Minneapolis.

By observing the data in Graph 1, we can see that there aren’t many significant differences between 2016 data and 2017 data. Of course, there are months in 2016 that contain a greater number of homicides than there are months in 2017 and visa versa.

For example, there were more homicides in January, March, and May of 2016 than in those same months in 2017. In contrast, there were more homicides in February, April, and June of this year than those same months in 2016.

The greatest difference between the two years has been the months of May and June. For instance, there were 12 more homicides in May of 2016, 68 in total or approximately 17.5 percent, than in May of 2017. In comparison, there were 11 more homicides in June of 2017, 84 in total or approximately 15 percent, than in June of 2016. But overall, the behavior of the Chicago system of 2017 has been similar to the behavior of the Chicago system of 2016.

Either way, this system’s behavior is going to continue to depress economic utility in some parts of Chicago where these homicides are concentrated. And as the readers of this blog now, homicide distribution is not equal throughout Chicago.

This is because the neighborhoods of Austin, Englewood, Garfield Park, and North Lawndale to name a few continue to experience high numbers of homicides and high numbers of crime in general year after year. In contrast, the neighborhoods of Edison Park, North Park, Forest Glen, and Hegewisch to name a few do not experience such adverse systems’ variables, and of course this is good.

But how can adverse systems’ variables be addressed either by economic and public policy or by market solutions in these depressed subsystems of Chicago? Or perhaps these systems’ challenges could be addressed with a combination of government and marketplace solutions in these depressed subsystems of Chicago?

Let us now, as we have done before, attempt to disprove our notions and work in the tradition of natural philosophy until the next blog.


Matt Johnson is a blogger/writer for The Systems Scientist and the Urban Dynamics blog. He has also contributed to the Iowa State Daily and Our Black News. Matt has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. 

You can connect with him directly in the comments section, and follow him on Facebook

You can also follow The Systems Scientist on Twitter or Facebook.


Photo Credit: Pixabay






Copyright ©2017 – The Systems Scientist

Chicagoland: Systems Axioms, Boundaries, and 2017 Homicides through June

By Matt Johnson

Last year, Chicago experienced the highest number of homicides since 1996. There were 786 homicides in 2016. In 1996, there were 796 homicides according to the Chicago Tribune. So why did homicides begin to increase after a couple of decades of decreasing?

This blog will not address this question or the reasons behind the sudden increase in violence. Rather, this blog will focus on applying the systems’ axioms to this issue. In addition, this blog will focus on introduce and apply the notion of “boundary” from systems science to Chicago.

Photo Credit: www.thesystemsscientist.com.

This notion will be important because it will allow us to differentiate which parts of Chicago are experiencing these homicides and which parts of Chicago are not experiencing these homicides. Indeed, this idea of partitioning different parts of Chicago seems obvious, but these systems science notions will help us to zoom in on the boundaries of these sub-systems and illustrate the differences between these sub-systems and their characteristics in greater detail. Being able to compare and contrast sub-systems will be a powerful tool for us. But first a little review will be necessary.

In our last blog, we illustrated the three axioms of a system. We used the House of Representatives as our example to satisfy all three axioms. Now let’s see if Chicago satisfies our systems’ axioms. For those readers who are new, here are the axioms:

  1. A system consists of a set of elements.
  2. Elements in a system interact.
  3. A system has a function, or purpose.

First, does Chicago satisfy the first axiom; that is, does a system consists of a set of elements? According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the population of Chicago as of July 1, 2016 was 2,704,958. In other words, the set of elements, or residents, of Chicago was a little more than 2.7 million. Thus, the first axiom is satisfied.

Second, does Chicago satisfy the second axiom; that is, do elements in a system interact? This axiom is a bit more difficult to visualize because the human brain cannot imagine 2,704,958 people interacting with each other on a daily, hour, minute, or second basis.

And of course two natural question derive from this lack of perception. First, do all of the elements need to interact with each other? And second, is it possible for all of the elements to interact with each other? Eventually these questions will be answered via recognizing sub-systems from their respective general (prime) systems; and mathematics will be necessary to answer these questions. For now, the second axiom in this case will be accepted as true without mathematical proof.

Photo Credit: Chicago Tribune. Austin Neighborhood. Wards 29 and 37.

Finally, does Chicago satisfy the third axiom; that is, does a system have a function, or purpose? In this case, Chicago could have several functions: ecological, economic, political, and/or social. In this case, the function, or purpose, of Chicago will be accepted as the ability to increase utility and stability while decreasing crime and instability. Thus, the third axiom is satisfied.

Now that the axioms are satisfied, let’s address the second question: what are the boundaries of Chicago? We don’t have to go far to find the answer to our question. We only need to visit the City of Chicago for such information. It is the city government that is responsible for setting such boundaries including the boundaries of neighborhoods and wards.

There are 50 Wards in Chicago, which are parts of the Chicago system that make up the whole system. Moreover, each part of the system, or ward, is represented by an alderman (city council member). And as stated before, each ward also has its own geographical area. For example, the “Chicago aldermen…voted to set new boundaries for the city’s wards” in January of 2012. In systems science, these type of boundaries are called political boundaries.

These political boundaries, as this interactive map from WBEZ 91.5 Chicago demonstrates, are concrete and irregular (an example of a regular shape would be a square, rectangle, triangle, or circle). This interactive map also illustrates the political constraints of the Ward within Chicago, for instance Ward 29 and Ward 37, that have their own political boundaries. This is because these wards are also political sub-systems of Chicago.  Again, these boundaries are set by the city representatives, or aldermen, who pass policy for the City of Chicago.

Photo Credit: Chicago Tribune. North Park Neighborhood. Ward 39.

As stated before, Chicago experienced 786 homicides in 2016 and 329 homicides this year. But these homicides did not occur equally throughout the windy city. For example, there were 88 homicides in the Austin neighborhood in 2016 according to the Chicago Tribune. This is important to know because the Austin neighborhood overlaps both the 29th and 37th Wards of Chicago. And this year, the Austin neighborhood has experienced 43 homicides through June 30th.

In contrast, North Park, which is in the north central part of Chicago and in the 39th Ward, experienced no homicides in 2016, or 2017 so far, according to data pulled from the Chicago Tribune. The same can be said for the Edison Park neighborhood which is in the 41st Ward and the north-west part of Chicago.

Photo Credit: Chicago Tribune. Edison Park Neighborhood. Ward 41.

And so what can the boundaries of the city and wards tell us about the general system of Chicago and the sub-systems of the 29th, 37th, 39th, and 41st Wards?

First, Chicago experienced 786 homicides in 2016 which was the most in two decades. Furthermore, we know that these homicides were not distributed equally. We know that more than 11 percent (88 of 786) of homicides in Chicago occurred in the Austin neighborhood in 2016; whereas, no homicides occurred in the Edison Park and North Park neighborhoods in 2016.

Second, these sub-systems will probably have a different set of ecological, economic, political, and social characteristics. For example, the aldermen of the 29th and 37th Wards are dealing with an extraordinary level of violence and ought to contribute to the lack of economic and social utility in the sub-system in the form of higher than average unemployment, lower than average median and family household incomes, and lower than average housing values.

In contrast, the aldermen of the 39th and 41st Wards are probably dealing with competitive levels of median and family household incomes, lower than average levels of unemployment, and higher than average housing values.

When we look at Chicago as a whole, this information will be lost to us. However, if we partition the Chicago system into sub-systems with concrete boundaries like wards and neighborhoods, then we will be able to see the different parts of the city in greater detail. We will be able to see that homicides really do happen in certain segments of Chicago and not just Chicago in general.

Article Questions:

Until the next blog, think about where a boundary would start and where a boundary might end. One example that might be useful is to think about where Earth’s atmosphere ends and outer space begins. Perhaps there is another example that is more localized and easier to visualize? Where does one neighborhood, or ward, begin and where does another neighbor, or ward, end? Or where does one culture start and where does one culture end? Find an example and test it.


Matt Johnson is a blogger/writer for The Systems Scientist and the Urban Dynamics blog. He has also contributed to the Iowa State Daily and Our Black News. And he has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. 

You can connect with him directly in the comments section, and follow him on Facebook

You can also follow The Systems Scientist on Twitter or Facebook.


Photo Credit: Pixabay






Copyright ©2017 – The Systems Scientist

Chicagoland: 2017 Homicide totals so far

TSS Admin

Nothing brings visitors and views to mainstream media websites quite like homicides in the windy city. When homicides are up, mainstream visitor traffic is good.

But don’t expect to hear from the mainstream media anytime soon. This is because homicides are down from last year at this time. Yes! It’s true.

Normal Distribution, Wikimedia Commons

According to data compiled by the Chicago Tribune, there were 260 homicides through the month of May in 2016. That was up significantly from 2015. In contrast, there have been 235 homicides so far this year. For those keeping count, that’s a reduction of 9.6 percent from last year.

Hopefully, Memorial Day weekend will stay relatively quiet this year and homicides will remain at 235.

Of course, the warm summer months are always the busiest time for crime in general, including homicides. Historically this has been the trend, and this is exactly what the data sets are saying.

If the trends hold, then homicides in Chicago should follow a normal distribution, i.e., a bell-curve, although the 2016 distribution of homicides skewed left.

Skewed-left distribution, University of Florida

This means that roughly about 68 percent of the homicides should happen within the warm months of the summer, or one standard deviation from the mean as the normal distribution above illustrates.

Moreover, about 32 percent of the homicides should occur outside of the one standard deviation, or outside the warmer months.

Does this mean the warm months of Chicago in 2017 will see more homicides than the warm months of Chicago in 2016? It does not.

So far, homicides are down from 2016 and if this trend continues throughout the summer months, then homicides should remain down. But the reader should keep in mind that homicides are very difficult to predict.

The only reason it is being suggested that homicides may trend below last year is because homicides are down. If they were up, then the prediction would be the opposite. Of course, this method is an archaic form of bayesian statistics, so take it with a grain of salt.

What do you think? Do you think homicides will remain lower than last year? Or do you think homicides will explode over the summer months? Either way, please provide your reasons and explanations below.


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Photo credit: Northwestern University






Copyright ©2017 – The Systems Scientist