Tag: Jacob Frey for Mayor

Sunday Data Dump: North side crime in Minneapolis in July 2017

The Minneapolis City government elections are slowing approaching. The big day is Tuesday, November 7th. And so the mission of this blog until November 7th is to provide data sets relevant to the mayoral race and the city council races, for which there are 13 council seats. Today’s data dump provides July crime data for two of those council seats – the 4th and 5th Wards. It should be noted that these two wards reside on the north side of Minneapolis.

There are a couple of things to consider while sifting through the data in Table 1Table 2, and Table 3. First, the total number of reported crimes for both wards together is 451. Second, the distribution of violent and non-violent crimes in the 4th Ward is fairly similar to the distribution of violent and non-violent crimes in the 5th Ward.

Table 1: 4th Ward Crime

Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total
Folwell 0 4 2 11 9 14 3 0 43
Webber-Camden 0 0 4 7 10 13 5 0 39
Lind-Bohanon 0 1 1 3 8 16 2 0 31
Cleveland 0 0 1 12 2 7 3 2 27
McKinley 0 1 2 5 1 7 1 0 17
Victory 0 1 0 1 4 7 2 0 15
Shingle Creek 0 0 0 1 3 8 0 0 12
Camden Industrial 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 0 6
Humboldt Industrial Area 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 7 11 40 38 74 18 2 190
(Crime/Total) x 100% 0 3.68 5.79 21.1 20.0 38.9 9.47 1.05 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

For example,  violent crimes accounted for 31 percent of all reported crimes in the 4th Ward in July. Similarly, violent crimes accounted for 30.3 percent of all reported crimes in the 5th Ward in July. And of course this means that the reported non-violent crimes for the 4th Ward in July were about the same for the non-violent crimes for the 5th Ward in July.

It should be noted that the difference between violent crime and non-violent crime is the component of bodily harm. This means that homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault are violent crimes because they include bodily harm, while burglary, larceny, auto theft, and arson are non-violent crimes because they don’t include bodily harm.

As information and a useful potential tool,  this violent/non-violent distribution can be viewed as 30/70. That is, 30 percent of the reported crimes in the 4th and 5th Wards are violent and 70 percent of the reported crimes in the 4th and 5th Wards are non-violent.

Table 2: 5th Ward Crime

Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total
Jordan 0 0 8 17 10 22 5 1 63
Hawthorne 0 6 6 11 4 21 4 1 51
North Loop 0 0 4 0 3 39 3 0 49
Near-North 1 0 4 8 2 31 2 0 48
Willard-Hay 1 2 5 5 5 9 7 0 34
Harrison 0 1 0 2 3 7 0 0 13
Sumner-Glenwood 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 3
Total 2 7 27 43 27 132 21 2 261
(Crime/Total) x 100% 0.77 2.68 10.3 16.5 10.3 50.6 8.05 0.77 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

This 30/70 fact can now be compared and contrasted with other wards and neighborhoods, for example, the Downtown West neighborhood. The first observation to glean from the three data sets is that Downtown West experienced more crime in July than the 4th and 5th Wards: 262, 261, 190.

It should be noted that the Downtown West neighborhood was addressed in the Wednesday Data Dump: The most crime ridden neighborhood in Minneapolis in 2017.

Second, 20.3 percent of the reported crimes in the Downtown West neighborhood are violent and 79.7 percent of the reported crimes are non-violent, or 20/80. This comparison illustrates that the north side wards experience about 10 percent more violent crime than Downtown West, which is the most crime ridden neighborhood in Minneapolis. Going forward, the difference between 30/70 and 20/80 will provide some interesting insights into what is happening between the respective systems.

Table 3: Downtown West Crime

Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total
Downtown West 1 4 30 18 8 195 6 0 262
(Crime/Total) x 100% 0.38 1.53 11.5 6.87 3.05 74.4 2.29 0 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

For now, this difference in violent crime data observations should elicit curiosity and questions. For instance, why might this difference be? What factors could contribute to the greater number of violent crimes on the north side? Obviously, these are just two questions that derive from the data. These aren’t questions that derive from political narratives.

And so this begs the question, are candidates like Nekima Levy-Pounds (mayoral candidate/former president of the NAACP), Jacob Frey (mayoral candidate/3rd Ward Council Member), Blong Yang (5th Ward Council Member), or Barbara Johnson (4th Ward Council Member) aware of the crime data in the 4th and 5th Wards and the Downtown West neighborhood?

Another question to ponder is, do Barbara Johnson, Blong Yang, and Jacob Frey receive weekly or monthly economic data profiles, including crime, for their respective wards? This question is asked because crime has been increasing over the past four years, for example, between 2010 and 2013, there were a total of  9,293 reported crimes; whereas, between 2014 and today, there have been a total of 9,598 and there are still 5 months of crime data left to report. And to be considerate, would a Mayor Nekima Levy-Pounds consider such a tool-kit?

 

Matt has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. He is also a professional member of the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics and the International Society for the Systems Sciences and a scholarly member of Omicron Delta Epsilon, which is an International Honors Society for Economics. 

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Photo Credit: Blong Yang, 5th Ward Council Member, Wikimedia Commons

 

 

 

 

 

 

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