Tag: Minneapolis 4th Ward

Monday Data Dump: Comparing Minneapolis’ 4th Ward July 2016 crime data to July 2017 crime data

In Sunday’s Data Dump, we compared and contrasted the 4th and 5th Wards crime behavior with respect to the crime behavior of the Downtown West neighborhood. From our observations, we first saw that Downtown West experienced more reported crimes, 262, than the 4th Ward, 190, and the 5th Ward, 261. Recall, we were comparing and contrasting a neighborhood against groups of neighborhoods, so clearly crime in the Downtown West neighborhood has been much more pronounced.

Second, we observed that the north side of the city experienced a greater proportion of violent crimes than the Downtown West neighborhood. In other words, we observed that the violent to non-violent crime ratio, i.e., violent/non-violent, was 30/70 for the 4th and 5th Wards and 20/80 for the Downtown West neighborhood.

But what happens to the ratios if we compare and contrast July of 2017 reported crimes against July of 2016 reported crimes? Will we observe a decrease in overall reported crimes between July of 2016 and July of 2017? And will we see the violent/non-violent ratios change?

Table 1: 4th Ward Crime in July 2017

Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total
Folwell 0 4 2 11 9 14 3 0 43
Webber-Camden 0 0 4 7 10 13 5 0 39
Lind-Bohanon 0 1 1 3 8 16 2 0 31
Cleveland 0 0 1 12 2 7 3 2 27
McKinley 0 1 2 5 1 7 1 0 17
Victory 0 1 0 1 4 7 2 0 15
Shingle Creek 0 0 0 1 3 8 0 0 12
Camden Industrial 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 0 6
Humboldt Industrial Area 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 7 11 40 38 74 18 2 190
(Crime/Total) x 100% 0 3.68 5.79 21.1 20.0 38.9 9.47 1.05 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

According to Table 1, we observe that there were 190 reported crimes in the 4th Ward in July of 2017. In comparison, we observe there were 170 reported crimes in July of 2016.

Applying a simple computation of percent change, we see that reported crimes overall increased by about 11.8 percent between July of 2016 and July of 2017.  Of course, it should be understood that these results pertain to the 2016 and months of July. The data and percent differences do not tell us anything about the dynamics or systems behaviors of the 4th Ward, 5th, and Downtown West neighborhood outside of the months of July.

Moving along, we observed that the violent/non-violent reported crime ratio was 30/70 in July of 2017. Utilizing Table 2, we can observe that these ratio has changed. In July of 2016, we see that about 37 percent of the reported crimes were violent crime and about 63 percent of the reported crimes were non-violent crimes – 37/63 ratio.

To find the differences between reported violent crimes between July of 2017 and July of 2016 and reported non-violent crimes between July of 2017 and July of 2016, we can once again utilize our difference formula as follows:

4th Ward violent crime change = (July 2017 – July of 2016) = (30% – 37%) = – 7 % which means violent crime decreased by 7% although overall crime increased by 11.8%.

4th Ward non-violent crime change = (July 2017 – July of 2016) = (70% – 63%) = 7% which means non-violent crime increased by 7% while overall crime increased by 11.8%.

A deeper analysis of the data would be required to see which crimes contributed to the 11.8 percent increase in overall crime.

Table 2: 4th Ward Crime in July 2016

Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total
Folwell 0 1 4 10 3 15 5 0 38
Webber-Camden 0 2 6 11 5 8 4 0 36
Lind-Bohanon 0 1 4 6 7 6 6 0 30
Cleveland 1 0 1 3 5 7 4 21
McKinley 0 1 1 5 4 7 3 0 217
Victory 0 0 0 1 6 5 1 0 13
Shingle Creek 0 0 3 1 0 2 2 0 8
Camden Industrial 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Humboldt Industrial Area 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Total 1 5 19 38 30 52 25 0 170
(Crime/Total) x 100% 0.59 2.94 11.2 22.4 17.6 30.6 14.7 0.00 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

So what does all of this mean? First, overall reported crimes in the 4th Ward did increase when comparing July of 2016 and July of 2017. But of course this system’s behavior only provides an overall observation of the 4th Ward system with respect to crime. Second, violent crimes were 7 percent lower in July of 2017 when compared to July of 2016 and non-violent crimes were 7 percent higher in July of 2017 when compared to July of 2016. In other words, bodily harm crimes decreased while property crimes increased.

Finally, it should be noted that these computations do not take into account the geographical locations of the reported violent and non-violent crimes. To do that, the violent and non-violent ratios of each neighborhood in the 4th Ward would need to be taken into account.  For example, the most obvious place to start would be the Folwell neighborhood since it experienced the most reported crimes in the 4th Ward in both July of 2016 and July of 2017 (note: this exercise can be repeated for all of the neighborhoods in the 4th Ward).

According to the difference formula, the Folwell neighborhood experienced a reported violent/non-violent crime ratio of about 39/61 compared to a violent/non-violent crime ratio of about 37/63 overall in the 4th Ward in July of 2016. So violent crime was greater for the Folwell neighborhood than the 4th Ward in July of 2016.

Moreover,  the Folwell neighborhood experienced a violent/non-violent reported crime ratio of about 40/60 in July of 2017 compared to a violent/non-violent crime ratio of about 30/70 in the 4th Ward in July of 2017. So while violent crime increased in the Folwell neighborhood in July of 2017 by a percentage point, violent crime decreased overall in the 4th Ward in July of 2017 by 7 percentage points, and this isn’t addressing the dynamics of how these violent/non-violent ratios change over time.

The dynamics of this system, and the other systems in Minneapolis will be explored and illustrated in future blogs. For now, we have some facts to chew on and notions to explore.

Until then, do you believe local city council members in Minneapolis, and Mayor Betsy Hodges for that matter, are aware of such data? Do you believe their knowledge of these systems and how they behave over time is this sophisticated? And if their knowledge is this sophisticated, how do you know? What evidence do you have?

Data takeaways:

  1. When comparing July 2016 and July 2017, reported crimes increased by 11.8 percent in the 4th Ward.
  2. When comparing July 2016 and July 2017, reported violent crimes decreased by 7% in the 4th Ward.
  3. When comparing July 2016 and July 2017, reported non-violent crimes increased by 7% in the 4th Ward.

 

Matt has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. He is also a professional member of the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics and the International Society for the Systems Sciences and a scholarly member of Omicron Delta Epsilon, which is an International Honors Society for Economics. 

You can connect with him directly in the comments section, and follow him on Facebook

You can also follow The Systems Scientist on Twitter or Facebook.

 

Photo Credit: Tony Webster, Flickr

 

 

 

 

 

 

Copyright ©2017 – The Systems Scientist