Tag: Minneapolis Crime Data

Sunday Data Dump: North side crime in Minneapolis in July 2017

The Minneapolis City government elections are slowing approaching. The big day is Tuesday, November 7th. And so the mission of this blog until November 7th is to provide data sets relevant to the mayoral race and the city council races, for which there are 13 council seats. Today’s data dump provides July crime data for two of those council seats – the 4th and 5th Wards. It should be noted that these two wards reside on the north side of Minneapolis.

There are a couple of things to consider while sifting through the data in Table 1Table 2, and Table 3. First, the total number of reported crimes for both wards together is 451. Second, the distribution of violent and non-violent crimes in the 4th Ward is fairly similar to the distribution of violent and non-violent crimes in the 5th Ward.

Table 1: 4th Ward Crime

Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total
Folwell 0 4 2 11 9 14 3 0 43
Webber-Camden 0 0 4 7 10 13 5 0 39
Lind-Bohanon 0 1 1 3 8 16 2 0 31
Cleveland 0 0 1 12 2 7 3 2 27
McKinley 0 1 2 5 1 7 1 0 17
Victory 0 1 0 1 4 7 2 0 15
Shingle Creek 0 0 0 1 3 8 0 0 12
Camden Industrial 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 0 6
Humboldt Industrial Area 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 7 11 40 38 74 18 2 190
(Crime/Total) x 100% 0 3.68 5.79 21.1 20.0 38.9 9.47 1.05 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

For example,  violent crimes accounted for 31 percent of all reported crimes in the 4th Ward in July. Similarly, violent crimes accounted for 30.3 percent of all reported crimes in the 5th Ward in July. And of course this means that the reported non-violent crimes for the 4th Ward in July were about the same for the non-violent crimes for the 5th Ward in July.

It should be noted that the difference between violent crime and non-violent crime is the component of bodily harm. This means that homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault are violent crimes because they include bodily harm, while burglary, larceny, auto theft, and arson are non-violent crimes because they don’t include bodily harm.

As information and a useful potential tool,  this violent/non-violent distribution can be viewed as 30/70. That is, 30 percent of the reported crimes in the 4th and 5th Wards are violent and 70 percent of the reported crimes in the 4th and 5th Wards are non-violent.

Table 2: 5th Ward Crime

Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total
Jordan 0 0 8 17 10 22 5 1 63
Hawthorne 0 6 6 11 4 21 4 1 51
North Loop 0 0 4 0 3 39 3 0 49
Near-North 1 0 4 8 2 31 2 0 48
Willard-Hay 1 2 5 5 5 9 7 0 34
Harrison 0 1 0 2 3 7 0 0 13
Sumner-Glenwood 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 3
Total 2 7 27 43 27 132 21 2 261
(Crime/Total) x 100% 0.77 2.68 10.3 16.5 10.3 50.6 8.05 0.77 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

This 30/70 fact can now be compared and contrasted with other wards and neighborhoods, for example, the Downtown West neighborhood. The first observation to glean from the three data sets is that Downtown West experienced more crime in July than the 4th and 5th Wards: 262, 261, 190.

It should be noted that the Downtown West neighborhood was addressed in the Wednesday Data Dump: The most crime ridden neighborhood in Minneapolis in 2017.

Second, 20.3 percent of the reported crimes in the Downtown West neighborhood are violent and 79.7 percent of the reported crimes are non-violent, or 20/80. This comparison illustrates that the north side wards experience about 10 percent more violent crime than Downtown West, which is the most crime ridden neighborhood in Minneapolis. Going forward, the difference between 30/70 and 20/80 will provide some interesting insights into what is happening between the respective systems.

Table 3: Downtown West Crime

Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total
Downtown West 1 4 30 18 8 195 6 0 262
(Crime/Total) x 100% 0.38 1.53 11.5 6.87 3.05 74.4 2.29 0 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

For now, this difference in violent crime data observations should elicit curiosity and questions. For instance, why might this difference be? What factors could contribute to the greater number of violent crimes on the north side? Obviously, these are just two questions that derive from the data. These aren’t questions that derive from political narratives.

And so this begs the question, are candidates like Nekima Levy-Pounds (mayoral candidate/former president of the NAACP), Jacob Frey (mayoral candidate/3rd Ward Council Member), Blong Yang (5th Ward Council Member), or Barbara Johnson (4th Ward Council Member) aware of the crime data in the 4th and 5th Wards and the Downtown West neighborhood?

Another question to ponder is, do Barbara Johnson, Blong Yang, and Jacob Frey receive weekly or monthly economic data profiles, including crime, for their respective wards? This question is asked because crime has been increasing over the past four years, for example, between 2010 and 2013, there were a total of  9,293 reported crimes; whereas, between 2014 and today, there have been a total of 9,598 and there are still 5 months of crime data left to report. And to be considerate, would a Mayor Nekima Levy-Pounds consider such a tool-kit?

 

Matt has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. He is also a professional member of the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics and the International Society for the Systems Sciences and a scholarly member of Omicron Delta Epsilon, which is an International Honors Society for Economics. 

You can connect with him directly in the comments section, and follow him on Facebook

You can also follow The Systems Scientist on Twitter or Facebook.

 

Photo Credit: Blong Yang, 5th Ward Council Member, Wikimedia Commons

 

 

 

 

 

 

Copyright ©2017 – The Systems Scientist

Wednesday Data Dump: The Most crime ridden neighborhood in Minneapolis in 2017

There are a couple of things to consider while sifting through today’s data. First, crime increases as the year progresses. This is a pretty common pattern in cities in the midwest, where temperatures change as the seasons change and there can be a 120 degree temperature difference between the middle of summer and the middle of winter. Second, larceny is the most abundant crime in the Downtown West neighborhood at 73 percent. Robbery is second at 11.2 percent.

Table 1: Crime in the Downtown West Neighborhood

Month Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total
Jan 1 5 19 9 8 139 6 0 187
Feb 0 2 19 13 8 137 9 0 188
Mar 0 6 14 7 6 158 6 0 197
Apr 0 0 13 20 12 145 10 0 200
May 0 4 35 17 4 133 3 0 196
June 0 7 33 9 13 155 7 0 224
July 1 4 30 18 8 195 6 0 262
Total 2 28 163 93 59 1062 47 0 1454
(Crime/Total) x 100% 0.14 1.93 11.2 6.40 4.06 73.0 3.23 0 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

And finally, there have been 1,454 reported crimes in the Downtown West neighborhood through July 31st according to the data in Table 1. Minneapolis as a whole has experienced 13,511 reported crimes through July 31st. With a simple computation, Downtown West has experienced approximately 11 percent of the reported crimes in the City of Lakes.

Comparing Downtown west to the other 6 neighborhoods in Table 2, a simple computation will show that Downtown West contained about 38 percent of the reported crimes in the Top 7 neighborhoods. So two questions reveal themselves immediately. First, is it normal for Downtown West to contain 11 percent of the crimes in Minneapolis? What would the historical data say? And second, is it normal for Downtown West to contain 38 percent of the reported crimes in the Top 7 neighborhoods? Again, what would the historical data say?

Table 2: Crime in the Top 7 Neighborhoods 

Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total
Downtown West 1 4 30 18 8 195 6 0 262
Whittier 0 1 6 5 12 59 5 0 88
Loring Park 0 2 7 3 2 55 3 0 72
Longfellow 0 1 6 2 12 46 3 0 70
Lowry Hills East 0 3 3 6 11 43 3 0 69
Marcy Holmes 0 1 5 2 6 40 12 0 66
Jordan 0 0 8 17 10 22 5 1 63
Total 1 12 65 53 61 460 37 1 690
(Crime/Total) x 100% 0.14 1.74 9.42 7.68 8.84 66.7 5.36 0.14 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

Downtown West was the most crime ridden neighborhood in Minneapolis. And it has been this way for sometime. This is nothing new. Although Graph 1 doesn’t provide contrasting, dynamical data with any of the other neighborhoods in Minneapolis, it does provide a few details concerning this system behavior nonetheless. For example, it appears as though there have been more reported crimes between 2014 and today than there were between 2010 and 2013.

This is indeed the case. Between 2010 and 2013, there were a total of  9,293 reported crimes in the Downtown West neighborhood; and between 2014 and today, there have been a total of 9,598 in the Downtown neighborhood (a 3.3 percent increase for those keeping track), and there are still 5 months of crime data left to report. This fact illustrates that crime has not only increased from last year, but it has been increasing for a longer period time. And so what will this mean for the Minneapolis mayoral race and city council races?

A couple of tidbits to ponder until the next data dump. Downtown West resides in Ward 3 and Ward 7. Ward 3 is represented by Jacob Frey. Council Member Frey is currently running for Mayor of Minneapolis. Second, Ward 7 is represented by Lisa Goodman, who is also up for re-election. Apparently, Lisa Goodman likes to put her already chewed gum in another person’s hand, i.e., Teqen Zéa-Aida, who is also running for the Ward 7 city council seat. Weird. Perhaps focusing on crime would be better time spent?

 

Matt Johnson is a blogger/writer for The Systems Scientist and the Urban Dynamics blog. He has also contributed to the Iowa State Daily and Our Black News.

Matt has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. He is also a professional member of the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics and the International Society for the Systems Sciences and a scholarly member of Omicron Delta Epsilon, which is an International Honors Society for Economics. 

You can connect with him directly in the comments section, and follow him on Facebook

You can also follow The Systems Scientist on Twitter or Facebook.

 

Photo Credit: The Systems Scientist

 

 

 

 

 

 

Copyright ©2017 – The Systems Scientist

Minneapolis crime pattern since 2013

With the Minneapolis mayoral and city council elections only a few weeks away, crime is still a top issue. How will the mayoral candidates fair and will crime continue to remain a top issue?

Graph 1

As Graph 1 illustrates, crime is seasonal as it goes through its peaks during the summer months and valleys during the winter months. What is also interesting about this graphical representation, besides the fact that it’s dynamical, is that it shows how crime decreased each year from 2013 through 2015.

You can check for yourself by aligning a ruler with the peak crime months of 2013, 2014, and 2015. As you’ll notice, the ruler is tipping downward, i.e., a downward (negative) slop.

But 2016 illustrates an increase when compared to the previous months and years; and it appears 2017 will maintain that trend of increasing crime.

Thus, you can perform the same exercise with the ruler with the peak months of 2015, 2016, and 2017. You’ll notice an increasing slope with this set of months, i.e., increasing crime rates.

Of course, the increasing slope of crime doesn’t appear to be as pronounced as the decreasing slop of crime, but the decrease and increase are obvious nonetheless. Something to think about with city elections on the horizon.

 

Matt Johnson is a blogger/writer for The Systems Scientist and the Urban Dynamics blog. He has also contributed to the Iowa State Daily and Our Black News.

Matt has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. He is also a professional member of the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics and the International Society for the Systems Sciences and a scholarly member of Omicron Delta Epsilon, which is an International Honors Society for Economics. 

You can connect with him directly in the comments section, and follow him on Facebook

You can also follow The Systems Scientist on Twitter or Facebook.

 

Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons

 

 

 

 

 

 

Copyright ©2017 – The Systems Scientist

 

Minneapolis: July’s Top 7 Neighborhoods for Crime in 2017

There are few things to consider when sifting through this data set. First, the highest number of reported crimes in Minneapolis are not in the Jordan neighborhood in North Minneapolis, or any  other neighborhood in North Minneapolis for that matter. To the contrary, Downtown West has the highest number of reported crimes. In fact, it has had the highest number of reported crimes in each month this year, and it generally does year after year.

Second, 6 of the 7 neighborhoods in the top 7 are not in North Minneapolis. Of course, this doesn’t mean there aren’t other North Minneapolis neighborhoods that don’t experience a relatively high number of crimes. As a group of neighborhoods, the north side definitely illustrates a concentration of reported crimes. This will be illustrated in a future blog.

Crime: Top 7 Neighborhoods 

Neighborhood Homicide Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny Auto Theft Arson Total
Downtown West 1 4 30 18 8 195 6 0 262
Whittier 0 1 6 5 12 59 5 0 88
Loring Park 0 2 7 3 2 55 3 0 72
Longfellow 0 1 6 2 12 46 3 0 70
Lowry Hills East 0 3 3 6 11 43 3 0 69
Marcy Holmes 0 1 5 2 6 40 12 0 66
Jordan 0 0 8 17 10 22 5 1 63
Total 1 12 65 53 61 460 37 1 690
(Crime/Total) x 100% 0.14 1.74 9.42 7.68 8.84 66.7 5.36 0.14 100

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

And lastly, 66.7 percent of the of the reported crimes of the top 7 neighborhoods are Larceny. Matter of fact, Larceny is between 65 and 75 percent of the reported crime each month in Minneapolis. Of course this statistic varies from neighborhood to neighborhood, but it’s a fairly consistent statistic for Minneapolis.

 

Matt Johnson is a blogger/writer for The Systems Scientist and the Urban Dynamics blog. He has also contributed to the Iowa State Daily and Our Black News.

Matt has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. He is also a professional member of the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics and the International Society for the Systems Sciences and a scholarly member of Omicron Delta Epsilon, which is an International Honors Society for Economics. 

You can connect with him directly in the comments section, and follow him on Facebook

You can also follow The Systems Scientist on Twitter or Facebook.

 

Photo Credit: Tony Webster, Flickr

 

 

 

 

 

 

Copyright ©2017 – The Systems Scientist