Tag: Number of Foreclosures

Thursday Data Dump: Foreclosures in Minneapolis in 2016

As today’s data will illustrate, foreclosures are not distributed throughout the city equally. So here are a couple of things to keep in mind while sifting through this data table.

First, 37 percent of the foreclosures in Minneapolis resided on the north side of the city in 2016 – 22.4 percent of the foreclosures were in the 4th Ward and 14.6 percent of the foreclosures were in the 5th Ward.

Second, these were the only two wards with a foreclosure percentage greater than 10 percent. Of course, these two wards have been like this for sometime.

I wrote about this very subject a few times back in 2015. As I explained back then in A Comparison of Minneapolis’ Foreclosure Rates by Ward and Foreclosure Rates: Wards 4, 5, and 10 from 2006 to 2015, the 4th and 5th Wards accounted for about 40 percent of the foreclosures in the city. And as this current data illustrates, these two wards still account for about the same percentage.

Minneapolis: 2016 Foreclosure Data

Ward 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter Total Percent
1 3 7 8 5 23 6.71
2 6 3 4 1 14 4.08
3 2 4 4 8 18 5.25
4 26 16 19 16 77 22.4
5 19 17 7 7 50 14.6
6 3 5 1 1 10 2.92
7 2 4 4 3 13 3.79
8 9 7 8 5 29 8.45
9 13 5 7 3 28 8.16
10 3 1 4 2 10 2.92
11 6 8 4 3 21 6.12
12 5 7 9 12 33 9.62
13 4 6 4 3 17 4.96
Total 101 90 83 69 343 100.0

(Source: City of Minneapolis)

So as far as proportionality is concerned, not much has changed.

The bright side is that foreclosures have definitely decreased in both wards. However, the question is what will happen to these wards when the market decides to take another nose dive?

The 4th and 5th Wards are not as economically stable as other parts of the city. But the point here is that education, as we’ve seen, provides greater earnings power, and thus greater economic stability and security. Of course as the readers of this blog know very well, earnings increases with education according to the data that has been observed so far.

So it should follow that more education will facilitate greater earnings which will in turn facilitate greater economic stability and security which in turn will decrease foreclosures.

Going forward, what does the foreclosure data look like for 2017 and how does it compare to 2016? And what does the system’s behavior of this foreclosure data look like over the period of a few years? Are foreclosures decreasing throughout Minneapolis and are there any wards  that are bucking this trend? And the big question, will this even have an impact on the mayoral and city council races?

 

Matt has a Bachelor of Science in Systems Science, with focuses in applied mathematics and economic systems, from Iowa State University. He is also a professional member of the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics and the International Society for the Systems Sciences and a scholarly member of Omicron Delta Epsilon, which is an International Honors Society for Economics. 

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Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Minneapolis: The Numbers Within the 4th Ward

By Matt Johnson

Figure 1
Data Provided by the City of Minneapolis – Data Compiled and Computed by Urban Dynamics – Figure 1

As Figure 1 illustrates, the 4th Ward has had the highest percentage of foreclosures in the City of Minneapolis since at least the fourth quarter of 2006 with the exception of the second quarter of 2007 when the 5th Ward held the highest frequency.

But is every zip code and neighborhood created equal when it comes to the numbers and percentages within the 4th Ward?

As we can see from Figure 2, there are distinct differences between the zip codes of the 4th Ward in North Minneapolis – 55411, 55412, and 55430. It is clear that 55412 contains the highest numbers of foreclosures from quarter to quarter throughout 2014.

And the distinction is fantastically highlighted when we look at the differences in relative frequency. As Figure 3 indicates, between 70 to 80 percent of the foreclosures in the 4th Ward were concentrated in the 55412 zip code throughout the respective quarters of 2014.

Figure 2
Data Provided by the City of Minneapolis – Data Compiled and Computed by Urban Dynamics – Figure 2

But there are a couple of differences to keep in mind while we continue to analyze these three zip codes over the course of Urban Dynamic’s analysis of the north side.

55412 is the largest zip code by area in the 4th Ward at 3.6 square miles and it comprises most of the 4th Ward’s land area.  55430 comprises the next most land area for the 4th Ward at 1.23 square miles. This is because only 22.07 percent of 55430 resides in Minneapolis. But there are some other differences between 55430 and 55412. According to City Data, 55430 has a higher proportion of “white” to “black” residents, a lower unemployment rate, and a higher level of education from high school through graduate school than 55411, 55412. How much of this difference between “white” and “black” residents in the 55430 zip code exists? That’s an additional question that will require a bit more digging.

Continuing our decomposition of the 4th Ward, 55411 is the smallest zip code in area in the 4th Ward. This is because most of 55411 resides in the 5th Ward, so in this analysis, 55411 and 55412 won’t be compared.

Figure 1
Data Provided by the City of Minneapolis – Data Compiled and Computed by Urban Dynamics – Figure 3

55411 will be considered in future articles when we analyze the 5th Ward and when we directly compare the 4th Ward to the 5th Ward. However, it should be noted that 55411 and 55412 contribute most of the foreclosures in the 4th and 5th Wards.

Moreover, future articles will explain how the number and percent of foreclosures in North Minneapolis increase as one moves from north to south (or from south to north depending on your reference point); that is, from 55430 to 55412 to 55411 and to 55405 and 55401. Future articles will also attempt to illustrate this same thinking and pattern for unemployment, median household income, education level, and “race.” Remember, as each article is published, another part of the painting is created.

Foreclosure Rates: Wards 2, 4, and 5 from 2006 to 2015

Figure 1
Figure 1

Continuing the analysis of foreclosure rates in Minneapolis from the previous article Foreclosure Rates: Wards 4, 5, and 10 from 2006 to 2015, it is important to compare and contrast the wards with the highest foreclosure numbers and the wards with the lowest foreclosure numbers in the City of Minneapolis.

As Figure 1 illustrates, the 2nd Ward’s foreclosure numbers have been relatively linear since the fourth quarter of 2006. Furthermore, it can been seen that the 2nd Ward peaked at 14 foreclosures during the third quarter of 2010. In contrast, Wards 4 and 5 in North Minneapolis accounted for 172 and 86 foreclosures, respectively in that same quarter and year. That is of course a striking difference.

Indeed, Southeast Minneapolis is a smaller part of Minneapolis in area compared to North Minneapolis. But contrasting the two parts of town directly, North Minneapolis, which accounted for 258 foreclosures while Southeast Minneapolis accounted for just 14 foreclosures in the third quarter of 2010, is paramount. Thus, North Minneapolis accounted for about 18 times the number of foreclosures than Southeast Minneapolis during that time period.

Figure 2
Figure 2

We can see this difference in Figure 2 in another way. The Figure 2 graph also shows the pattern of Minneapolis foreclosures from the fourth quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2015. From the graph, it is clear that Ward 2’s foreclosure participation is flat and does not play much of a part in the totality of the foreclosure market in Minneapolis. However, North Minneapolis tells a different story.

It is clear from the data that Minneapolis’ foreclosure numbers have been steadily decreasing since 2008 with one sharp market peak in 2010. But during that time of recovery and increased market competitiveness and productivity, Wards 4 and 5 in North Minneapolis accounted for a large chunk Minneapolis’ total number of foreclosures. In other words, Wards 4 and 5 have accounted for a larger proportion of the foreclosure market in Minneapolis in general since at least the fourth quarter of 2006.

Figure 3
Figure 3

To really see and understand this idea of proportionality, we must view Figure 3. What Figure 3 illustrates is what is called relative frequency in mathematics and statistics. Simply put, relative frequency expresses proportionality.

Figure 2 tells a story that the total number of foreclosures in Minneapolis have been steadily decreasing, and this is certainly a positive economic component of recovery, but Figure 3 expresses North Minneapolis’ foreclosure rates have remained fairly constant compared to the rest of the city and appear to have increased in greater proportion in the past few quarters. Sending this point home, North Minneapolis has the greatest proportion of foreclosures in the City of Minneapolis.

Although it is clear from the data that the total number of foreclosures in the 4th and 5th Wards have been decreasing over the past few years, their recovery has been relative. In other words, there is still a greater proportion and total number of foreclosures in North Minneapolis than any other part of the city; that is, Northeast Minneapolis, Southeast Minneapolis, Southwest Minneapolis, and South Minneapolis.

To delve a bit deeper into these wards and subject matter, I suggest Patterns of the 5th Ward: “Race” and Comparing Zip Codes | Median Household Income for Minneapolis. For something a bit more general and that involves cities and astronomy, see A City on Mars: A Response to Elon Musk.

As always, I invite you to post your thoughts, comments, and questions below.

 

 

Foreclosure Rates: Wards 4, 5, and 10 from 2006 to 2015

In the previous article A Comparison of Minneapolis’ Foreclosure Rates by Ward, I compared and contrasted the difference in foreclosure rates between Wards 4 and 5 in North Minneapolis, and Ward 2 in Northeast Minneapolis and Ward 10 in Southwest Minneapolis.

Data Courtesy of the City of Minneapolis - Graph Constructed by Urban Dynamics
(Figure 1) Data Courtesy of the City of Minneapolis – Graph Constructed by Urban Dynamics

However, I only compared the wards and their respective foreclosure rates from the first quarter in 2014 to the second quarter in 2015. But even with that short of a time scale, I illustrated a clear distinction between the high rates in North Minneapolis and the low rates in Northeast and Southwest Minneapolis.

But that analysis and data facilitated new questions. For example, what would the trends of the foreclosure rates between the wards in Minneapolis look like over multiple years? What type of trends would the data set illustrate? How would the Great Recession affect the data and consequently the different wards; that is, would there be a peak in foreclosures around or during the peak of the Great Recession? Would there be a noticeable peak for any of the Wards?

In Figure 1, we see a sharp contrast between Ward 10 in Southwest Minneapolis and Wards 4 and 5 in North Minneapolis. The table provides a lot of useful information for us to digest and consider. However, for this article we will consider only three facts. First, Ward 4 from the 4th quarter of 2006 to the 2nd quarter of 2015 experienced the highest number of foreclosures in the city with the exception of two quarters.

In the second quarter of 2007 and the 4th quarter of 2008, Ward 5 had a higher number of foreclosures than Ward 4. Other than that, Ward 4 has been the central location of foreclosures along with the highest foreclosure rates in the city since the fourth quarter of 2006.

Second, the foreclosure numbers in Ward 4 had been trending downward throughout 2008. However, in early 2009, around the same time of the pinnacle of the Great Recession, the number of foreclosures in the 4th Ward began trending upward. And in the third quarter of 2010, the number of foreclosures in North Minneapolis reached pre-Great Recession numbers. In other words, as soon as North Minneapolis began to recover from 911, the Great Recession happened, which may help explain the sharp peak in late 2010.

(Figure 2) Data Courtesy of the City of Minneapolis - Graph Constructed by Urban Dynamics
(Figure 2) Data Courtesy of the City of Minneapolis – Graph Constructed by Urban Dynamics

Of course at first glance, the consequence of 911 is only speculation and probably not very good speculation. This is because it doesn’t explain the low number of foreclosures in Ward 10. And it doesn’t explain the amazingly low foreclosure numbers in Ward 2, which will be illustrated in the next article. Additional data of foreclosures from 2002 to 2006 is needed along with economic data like unemployment and education.

Finally, the number of foreclosures in Southwest Minneapolis has been fairly low and fairly consistent. Only once did the number of foreclosures rise above 30 and that was before the peak of the Great Recession. Since then, it has been on a steady downward trend into the single digits of foreclosures. In other words, the 10th Ward weathered the Great Recession quite well.

There is one bright spot in this data set that is clear. Although the 4th and 5th Wards continue to post the highest number of foreclosures month after month, there is an obvious downward trend and the data seems to suggest that Wards 4 and 5 foreclosure numbers will converge with Ward 10. That is the one positive that can be taken from this data set immediately. A caveat, Figure 2 seems to be suggesting a different story.

What’s next? First, find out if there is a correlation between the number of foreclosures and the number of condemned and vacant buildings. In a previous article, it was illustrated that Wards 4 and 5 had the highest concentrations of condemned and vacant buildings in Minneapolis. so this would be a good place to start. Second, compare the unemployment rates and this data set. Is there overlap? In other words, as the unemployment rates go, so do the foreclosure rates follow? There are other comparisons that will be researched and posted in Urban Dynamics as well.